My Brexit Plan - Stop the Madness and go Back to Basics
18 months of Brexit negotiations and the British Government is still no closer to brokering an acceptable deal. These last few months has seen an astonishing amount of resignations within the Commons and with only a few months left before March 29th, at a time all the T's should be getting crossed and all the I's dotted, we're instead witnessing in-bickering, motions for no-confidence and calls for a general election. Jeremy Corbyn won't even engage in cross party discussions until certain demands are met.
All this drama is doing is adding more smoke to a fire that didn't even need to be burning for so long in the first place. Every minute issue seems to be exaggerated and the amount of scare-mongering is unfathomable. We are actually being told to prepare for shop shelves to be empty of food! I somehow doubt very much that delays at customs will result in all the supermarkets being destitute of food. Furthermore, everything is suddenly a crisis. World War II was a crisis, trade delays are a mere inconvenience.
TRADE
The EU-UK Trade Statistics were published on the Parliament UK website in November 2018.
According to the figures:
The UK exports to the EU totaled £274 billion, however UK imports from within the EU were £341 billion. That is £67 billion pounds a year worth of trade that we buy off them than they do off us. This should (in negotiation terms) have put us in a stronger position as introducing trade tariffs will only serve to benefit the UK economy more than it would the EU considering that we buy more.
so for example, let just say the EU introduces a 1% trade tariff (lets keep it simple) The UK would end up paying £274 million a year to the EU, however the UK would receive £341 million back in taxes we impose.
Then of course there is the opportunity for the UK to trade elsewhere, again this is a strong advantage on our behalf. This graph pulled from the House of Commons library, shows an increasing trade relationship between the UK and China, and with the ability to broker our own trade deals, I imagine this growth could rapidly increase.
FREE MOVEMENT & IMMIGRATION
There are currently around 3.4 million EU citizens residing in the UK and approximately 1.3 million UK citizens living in other EU countries. The negotiations surrounding all of their rights should honestly be very simple considering both sides want to protect their citizens.
The government have recently proposed a "complete overhaul of the immigration system".
This addresses concerns from many citizens about NHS Tourism and adopts a similar format as Australia and America.
To me it seems to make perfect sense having a singular immigration process applicable to every country with the same requirements and terms expected.
SOVEREIGNTY
There is growing concern about the what EU laws will still apply in the aftermath of Brexit. Again, this is a seriously simple process that does not take much comprehension. The European (Withdrawal) Act 2018 essentially means the instant we leave the EU, all EU derived law will be incorporated into domestic law thus stopping the EU from imposing further legislation and cutting them off as a source of law. From an everyday, average person perspective, there is no change. what was illegal on the 29th March will still be illegal on the 30th, and so forth. What is important to understand is that by regaining full sovereignty, parliament will then be able to repeal, amend and reform any previous EU imposed legislation when they deem fit to do so.
This is potentially great news for those that have been negatively affected by having legislation imposed on them. This will give them the ability to seek to un-do them. Such as the much discussed fishing rights.
However Parliament will now be free to meddle with rights that were protected to us by virtue of being a member state, such as Holiday Pay and Sick Leave, The Right to be Forgotten, Compensation for Flight Delays and a plethora of other rights that could potentially be prone to change, and there will be no ECJ to appeal to.
£39 BILLION!
is the amount the EU are seeking as a "divorce payment".
All this drama is doing is adding more smoke to a fire that didn't even need to be burning for so long in the first place. Every minute issue seems to be exaggerated and the amount of scare-mongering is unfathomable. We are actually being told to prepare for shop shelves to be empty of food! I somehow doubt very much that delays at customs will result in all the supermarkets being destitute of food. Furthermore, everything is suddenly a crisis. World War II was a crisis, trade delays are a mere inconvenience.
TRADE
The EU-UK Trade Statistics were published on the Parliament UK website in November 2018.
According to the figures:
The UK exports to the EU totaled £274 billion, however UK imports from within the EU were £341 billion. That is £67 billion pounds a year worth of trade that we buy off them than they do off us. This should (in negotiation terms) have put us in a stronger position as introducing trade tariffs will only serve to benefit the UK economy more than it would the EU considering that we buy more.
so for example, let just say the EU introduces a 1% trade tariff (lets keep it simple) The UK would end up paying £274 million a year to the EU, however the UK would receive £341 million back in taxes we impose.
Then of course there is the opportunity for the UK to trade elsewhere, again this is a strong advantage on our behalf. This graph pulled from the House of Commons library, shows an increasing trade relationship between the UK and China, and with the ability to broker our own trade deals, I imagine this growth could rapidly increase.
The Trade Statistics between the UK and the USA also shows a similar increase in trade. This tells us, that on the trade front, the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU.
Case in point: The UK and the EU should agree to enter into a partial customs union (similar to the Turkish model), whereby we trade with them without imposing tariffs and added friction, and in return they do the same. This then frees the UK to pursue more lucrative trade deals without disrupting the status-quo and bringing clarity and reassurances to businesses within the UK and EU that rely on each others trade. The EU seem to be forgetting that they too have businesses relying on a an acceptable trade deal to be achieved.
This also solves the Irish border crisis concern that has become farcical to say the least. There is no need for talks of a hard border, strict controls, CCTV, barriers and a backstop.
FREE MOVEMENT & IMMIGRATION
There are currently around 3.4 million EU citizens residing in the UK and approximately 1.3 million UK citizens living in other EU countries. The negotiations surrounding all of their rights should honestly be very simple considering both sides want to protect their citizens.
The government have recently proposed a "complete overhaul of the immigration system".
This addresses concerns from many citizens about NHS Tourism and adopts a similar format as Australia and America.
To me it seems to make perfect sense having a singular immigration process applicable to every country with the same requirements and terms expected.
SOVEREIGNTY
There is growing concern about the what EU laws will still apply in the aftermath of Brexit. Again, this is a seriously simple process that does not take much comprehension. The European (Withdrawal) Act 2018 essentially means the instant we leave the EU, all EU derived law will be incorporated into domestic law thus stopping the EU from imposing further legislation and cutting them off as a source of law. From an everyday, average person perspective, there is no change. what was illegal on the 29th March will still be illegal on the 30th, and so forth. What is important to understand is that by regaining full sovereignty, parliament will then be able to repeal, amend and reform any previous EU imposed legislation when they deem fit to do so.
Community law takes precedence over the Member States own domestic law.
This is potentially great news for those that have been negatively affected by having legislation imposed on them. This will give them the ability to seek to un-do them. Such as the much discussed fishing rights.
However Parliament will now be free to meddle with rights that were protected to us by virtue of being a member state, such as Holiday Pay and Sick Leave, The Right to be Forgotten, Compensation for Flight Delays and a plethora of other rights that could potentially be prone to change, and there will be no ECJ to appeal to.
£39 BILLION!
is the amount the EU are seeking as a "divorce payment".
MY BREXIT PLAN
Trade&Business
Offer to enter into a partial customs union. Carry on trading as normal within the EU. The EU will just have to accept that we will also be trading elsewhere. This ensures no issue with the Irish Border. Theres also too much or a mutual self-interest. Red tape and border hold-ups will be detrimental for BOTH sides.
Free Movement
Ensure all citizens on either side are guaranteed settled status. That no UK citizen that entered another EU country, or EU citizen that entered the UK, whilst the UK was still part of the EU shall face issues concerning immigration. New rules will only apply to those seeking to enter after the transition period not prior.
Security
The UK request to remain members of the Europol, SIS II and the EAW. Commitment to tackling international crime and terrorism should remain unhindered. This is of mutual importance.
Defense
Britain shall still remain a key NATO member and as such being one of the few EU countries that achieve the 2% target of GDP on defense, losing Britain as a military power (and nuclear at that) should be of great concern to the EU.
Science&Research
Britain will continue to fund and work alongside various departments in the field of science, research and technology on the basis of mutual gains. This will be a matter for each respective department to put forward an application for funding should it meet the appropriate criteria.
£39 billion
off the table (it should never have been on the table in the first place)
in the event that the above is not accepted (nonnegotiable), Britain will walk away with no deal and revert to WTO rules concerning trade. Britain will then focus its trade negotiations with countries it sees greater opportunities with. Britain will honor the conditions of EU citizens residing in the UK and mirror that of the EU's intentions toward UK citizens residing within the EU. Defense and Security cooperation will again mirror that of which the EU deems fit, noting that should more be expected from Britain than is being received in regards to resources, negotiations will ensue.
The cost of preparing Britain for a NO-BREXIT outcome and its aftermath will not amount to the sum of £39 billion and therefore Britain see's no reason to pay this amount.
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